West Midlands Police Commissioner gets his mathematics in a muddle

West Midlands Police Commissioner gets his mathematics in a muddle

Paul Dale of the Chamberlain Files has produced another good article at http://www.thechamberlainfiles.com/stop-throwing-cash-at-surrey-and-give-west-midlands-police-a-fair-deal/5434 In the article our new Police Commissioner  Bob Jones, is quoted as saying “The Government’s formula grant approach to police force funding meant that Surrey, an area of relatively low crime, had been given special protection from cuts in grant”

In that quote Bob Jones is both right and wrong. He is right that police forces in the industrial cities of the UK are having to take a disproportionate cut in public funding compared to the more affluent rural areas. However, he is wrong in the financial information he is giving out. Which hopefully this article will clarify. 

Bob Jones and the Birmingham Labour Party in fact got their maths completely in a muddle earlier this year in a “Join the fight for a fair deal for Birmingham”. Their website clearly implied that Tory Surrey was getting an increase in funding at Birmingham’s expense, namely “we’ve lost over 600 police officers whilst in Tory Surrey they’ve gained another 69”. This is not exactly correct 



Indeed, soon to be West Midlands police commissioner, Councillor Bob Jones, went further in interviews. Here are some of his quotes:

"We’ve taken a bigger share of the cuts than almost any other force in the country. Three times more than Surrey. “ quote from http://www.birminghampost.net/news/2012/06/22/labour-s-west-midlands-police-commissioner-hopeful-to-campaign-against-cuts-65233-31227169/#ixzz1ypuScIwX

“We were awarded £27 million less last year than the government’s own formula thanks to floors and ceilings they imposed. On the same system Surrey gets an extra £6 million over what they wanted.” Quote from http://www.birminghampost.net/news/2012/06/22/labour-s-west-midlands-police-commissioner-hopeful-to-campaign-against-cuts-65233-31227169/#ixzz1ypuu50GM

So what are the facts? 

Well for a start Surrey Police Authority make their financial accounts public. Links to them are as follows: 

http://www.surreypa.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Statement-of-Accounts-2010-11-Post-Audit-SIGNED.pdf http://www.surreypa.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/11-Budget-Precept.pdf 
The West Midlands police authority are not so forward with their financial accounts, but by using the Community and Local Government website – google “local government settlement” - this has proved an excellent resource. 

So how does the government funding of West Midlands police and Surrey police compare? 




As you can see Surrey police have seen the following reduction in funding: 
4.65% between 2010/11 and 2011/12
7.18% between 2011/12 and 2012/13

West Midlands police have seen the following reductions in funding:
5.55% between 2010/11 and 2011/12
6.67% between 2011/12 and 2012/13

Just in case you think the reduction in Surrey police funding is merely my bad mathematics, this is what Surrey police say in their ‘Budget and Precept 2012/13’ report “Surrey Police will receive a reduction in its total formula grant [National Non Domestic Rates (NNDR), Revenue Support Grant (RSG) and Police Grant] of 6.7% for 2012/13. This follows a reduction of 4.8% for 2011/12.” See http://www.surreypa.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/11-Revenue-Budget-Precept-Report-Final.pdf 


The difference in percentage reductions between Surrey police calculations and mine, is that I have included Special Grant from the Government in my calculations. 


As you can see both the West Midlands police and Surrey police have seen similar levels of reduction in government funding. It would be interesting if Bob Jones could show us how he has reached his claim that "We’ve taken a bigger share of the cuts than almost any other force in the country. Three times more than Surrey. “ 


So what about the police numbers claims? Well the figures can be seen by looking at http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/police-research/hosb0312/hosb0312?view=Binary 
As they show: 

Between Sept 2010 and Sept 2011, Surrey police increased their police officers by 97 officers, or a 5.2% increase in officers

Between Sept 2010 and Sept 2011, West Midlands police decreased their police officers by 493 officers, or a 5.8% decrease in officers. 


So how is it that the Surrey police force that has seen similar reductions in funding to West Midlands police force, has actually managed to increase its number of police officers? Well I’ll leave Surrey Police to explain that in the following news article: http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/s/2107390_surrey_police_only_force_to_see_officer_numbers_grow 


As the spokesperson for Surrey police says: "In Surrey we commenced a programme of work before the introduction of the Comprehensive Spending Review to address funding issues affecting the county prior to the current budget restrictions. 

"Over the last two years we have had to make significant changes to preserve frontline officer numbers and maintain the high standard of policing we provide to the public of Surrey.

"These include cuts to back-office functions and the reduction of senior leaders.

"The Force has also implemented a joint command with Sussex Police for firearms, major crime, and forensics, and carried out a review of police buildings across the county to work towards cash savings.

"The changes made have enabled the force to increase officer numbers but these have not been easy steps to make and we continue to face a savings target of around £30 million by March 2016."



As I said above, Bob Jones is correct to a point that the police forces in industrial cities of the UK are having to take a disproportionate cut in public funding compared to the more affluent rural areas. This is because the police forces in our industrial cities rely heavily on government grants compared to rural areas. The rural areas get a far greater proportion of their funding from local Council tax. Therefore a similar reduction in government funding for both industrial and rural areas will have a far greater impact on industrial areas.


To illustrate the point, I've re-examined the financial figures for both West Midlands police and Surrey police but this time including the funding from local Council tax:


As you can see, once you include Council tax, Surrey police have seen the following reduction in funding:
2.24% between 2010/11 and 2011/12
3.79% between 2011/12 and 2012/13

West Midlands police have seen the following reductions in funding:
4.78% between 2010/11 and 2011/12
5.78% between 2011/12 and 2012/13


So as you can see Bob Jones and the Labour Party are right in their sentiment, but completely wrong in their mathematics.